Positive boost, the textile industry can expect a “good start” after the holiday
As of October 8, the SunSirs fabric index was 828 points, an increase of 6 points from the previous day and a year-on-year increase of 11.14%. It has dropped 22.91% from the cycle high of 1074 points (2013-02-19) and increased 15.80% from the low of 715 points on February 17, 2016. (Note: The period refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
Comparison of prices before and after the National Day. The price monitoring of the business community shows that there are 9 commodities that have increased month-on-month in the fabric sector. The top three commodities with the highest increase are lint cotton (Level 3 Mainland China) ) (3.00%), polyester DTY (0.77%), polyester staple fiber (0.72%). There was 1 product with a month-on-month decrease, and the product with a decrease was spandex (-0.50%).
An inventory of major events during the seven days of National Day
Mainland seed cotton purchase price rises
During the National Day, the purchase price of local seed cotton in Li County, Hunan Province increased by 0.10-0.20 yuan/jin compared with before the holiday. The purchase price of local seed cotton in Tangshan, Hebei Province has gradually increased, from 3.4-3.5 yuan/jin to the current 3.7-3.8 yuan/jin. The purchase price of seed cotton in Hengshui City, Hebei Province is 3.80-3.85 yuan/jin, which is 0.15-0.20 yuan/jin higher than before the holiday.
ICE cotton futures weakened sharply
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE ) Cotton futures plunged nearly 3% on October 5, recording more than three weeks of intraday losses, as the threat of damage to cotton crops in the southeastern United States from Hurricane Matthew weakened.
2015/2016 cotton reserve rotation ends
September The 2015/2016 reserve cotton round came to a perfect conclusion on the 30th. As of September 30, 2016, the cumulative outbound transaction of 2015/2016 cotton reserve was 2.6483 million tons, of which 2.3522 million tons of domestic cotton were sold and 296,100 tons of imported cotton were sold. .
Chemical fiber equipment maintenance
Yitang Petrochemical PTA unit rotation Maintenance: The 2.25 million tons of Line 1 has been shut down for maintenance since October 8, and the maintenance lasts for about 10 days; Line 2 plans to shut down for maintenance in mid-to-late October; the 2.2 million tons/year PTA device of Hengli Petrochemical Unit 2# has been shut down for maintenance on October 8. It will be shut down for maintenance on October 7. Due to dryer problems, it will be shut down for about 20 days, and it is planned to reduce the contracted supply by 20%.
The purchase price of the third batch of autumn cocoons has increased significantly
During the seven-day National Day holiday, the third batch of autumn cocoons from Laibin Xiangzhou, Guangxi, has been launched one after another, and now it is entering the peak period of listing. As of October 8, the local purchase price of silkworm cocoons has basically remained at around 42 yuan/kg; autumn cocoons from Jiangsu and Zhejiang have also begun to be launched in large quantities. , among which Haian County opened a comprehensive scale to purchase Mid-Autumn cocoons at a purchase price of 49 yuan/kg, which was a significant increase compared with the same period last year.
Xia Ting, a fabric industry analyst from SunSirs, estimates that the fabric market is more likely to rise in the short term after the National Day. . Specifically:
Currently, 1/3 of the acrylonitrile production capacity in the chemical fiber industry is being overhauled, and the overhaul of PTA Hengli and Yizhang Enlargement has been implemented. Equipment maintenance effect�The chemical fiber sector will continue to maintain a strong trend in the short term; the end of the rotation of reserve cotton in the cotton textile industry and the shortage of new cotton resources will cause the cotton purchase price to continue to rise, and the market is more likely to take the opportunity to speculate. . In addition, the picking and listing of new flowers is expected to be slightly delayed. It is estimated that after mid-October, when machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang begins picking, lint cotton will be available in large quantities. In the cocoon silk industry, due to the impact of labor reduction, climate and environmental changes and other factors, the production of cocoons during this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival has declined, and the purchase price will continue to remain high.
On the downstream side, after the G20 summit, printing and dyeing and workwear companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have resumed production one after another. There is demand and a way out for natural cotton cloth, which also drives the sales of yarn and thread. However, nationwide, the overall sales of spinning yarn are not ideal and relatively deserted. Some manufacturers mainly reduce prices to remove inventory. At the same time, according to Chinese customs statistics, from January to August, my country’s textile yarn imports were US$4.81 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7%.
In summary, although there are constraints on the demand side, from the fundamentals of the product itself, there are more short-term benefits, which will help the fabric market continue to rise and reach a high point during the year. It is estimated to be around 840 points, and there may be a slight risk of a slight pullback at the end of October.
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