Cotton production decreased in 2019/10
Cotton production continues slide in 2019/10
USDA’s first 2019/10 world production forecast is 106.5 million bales, down 1.3 percent from the 2019/09 estimate. If realized, 2019/10 production will be the third consecutive year of decline in world output. China is expected to account for most of the global production decline in 2019/10 with a crop forecast at 33 million bales, down 2.8 million bales (8 percent) from 2019/09. Production in 2019/10 is also expected to decline in Brazil to 5.5 million bales ( 5 percent) and in Uzbekistan to 4.5 million bales (8 percent) from the 2019/09 crop estimate.
The impact of these declines on global production is expected to be slightly cushioned by rebounds in Australia and India. As shown in figure, the 2019/10 Australia crop is forecast at 1.9 million bales, up 31 percent from 2019/09. The prolonged drought in Australia in recent years has been giving way to increased precipitation and replenished irrigation supplies. In India, the 2019/10 crop is forecast at 25 million bales, up almost 9 percent from the 2019/09 crop estimate. This unprecedented output in India is expected to result from a combination of continued government support, increased area and yield, and the extensive use of the better yielding Bt cotton varieties.
2019/10 cotton output decreases
The first prediction of the US Department of Agriculture in 2019/10 cotton output is 16.5 million packages, which is decreased by 1.3 compared with the prediction of 2019/09. percentage point. If forecasts are accurate, production in 2019/10 will be the third consecutive year of decline. China’s cotton production, which accounts for the majority, is expected to reach 330,000 bales, a decrease of 28,000 bales or 8 percentage points compared with 2019/09. Brazil’s output in 2019/10 was 5.5 million bales, a decrease of 5 percentage points. Uzbekistan’s production was 4.5 million bales, down 8 points.
Falling production has impacted the economic rebound in Australia and India. The expected output value of Australian cotton in 2019/10 is 1.9 million bales, an increase of 31%. Australia has made efforts in recent years to increase rainfall and replenish irrigation supplies due to prolonged drought. India’s projected 2019/10 crop forecast is 250,000 bales, an increase of 9% compared to the 2019/09 estimate. This unprecedented production forecast has received support from the Indian government to increase cotton planting area, increase cotton production, and use Bt cotton seeds with better benefits.
AASVSGRUTO
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