The secret of the trade deficit: Textile exports fell significantly
The General Administration of Customs released March import and export trade data on the 13th. In US dollars, China’s March trade account was a deficit of US$4.983 billion, with an expected surplus of US$27.5 billion. The previous value was revised from a surplus of US$33.74 billion to a surplus of US$33.75 billion. . In RMB terms, China’s trade balance in March was a deficit of RMB 29.78 billion, an expected surplus of RMB 181 billion, and a surplus of RMB 224.88 billion in the previous month. This is the first time China’s trade balance has shown a deficit since February 2017.
Judging from the specific data for March disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, in terms of imports, soybean imports fell significantly. Soybean imports in March fell to 5.662 million tons, down 18.56% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year compared to the January-February average.
Imports of cars and aircraft increased. In March, the number of imported aircraft with an unladen weight of more than 2 tons surged to 47, which was higher than the total import volume from January to February. The import of automobiles and automobile chassis was 103,000 units, an increase of 16.38% from the average of 88,500 units in January and February.
In terms of exports, the textile industry experienced a larger monthly decline in March. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were US$71.842 million, a year-on-year decrease of 34.21%; textile yarns, fabrics and products were US$69.798 million, a year-on-year decrease of 23.28%.
Although there was a trade deficit in March, in the first quarter of this year, my country’s import and export of goods trade maintained a surplus. Customs data shows that my country’s total import and export value of goods trade in the first quarter was 6.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 3.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.4%; imports were 3.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7%; the trade surplus was 326.18 billion yuan, narrowing by 21.8%.
Industry insiders pointed out that in the second quarter of this year, the pressure and challenges faced by the global economy and international trade trends continued unabated. However, China will take a number of major measures to expand opening-up. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is expected that my country’s foreign trade import and export will continue to grow.
The decline in exports has little to do with Sino-US trade friction
In March, my country’s exports fell by 2.7% year-on-year, significantly lower than the previous value, marking the first negative growth since February 2017.
“The export growth rate declined in March and the trade deficit appeared. It has little to do with the Sino-US trade friction and is mainly caused by seasonal fluctuations.” Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that the export growth rate in the first quarter of each year is There are significant fluctuations. The decline in export growth in March this year does not mean that exports are weakening. A temporary trade deficit is normal, and it is expected to return to a surplus after April.
Analysts at Guolian Securities pointed out that this large-scale decline in growth is more a reflection of the weakness in the economic recovery process of developed economies. From the perspective of the export market, in March, my country’s export growth rates to major export markets such as the United States, Europe, Japan, ASEAN, India, and Russia all declined sharply. In addition to a slight positive growth of 1.4% in exports to ASEAN, other exports to the above The export volume of the market all showed negative growth.
Lian Ping predicts that exports are expected to maintain growth momentum in the second quarter. If trade protectionism continues to heat up and the Sino-US trade dispute escalates, it may affect export growth in the second half of the year.
Wang Qing of the Research and Development Department of Oriental Jincheng pointed out that with the disappearance of the Spring Festival disturbance, export growth will most likely rebound in April. In the context of the risk of escalation in the Sino-US trade dispute, it cannot be ruled out that April and May will The “export-rushing effect” appeared in 2016. It is conservatively expected that export growth will rebound to around 6.0% next month.
In terms of imports, import growth remained at double digits in March and the first quarter, with growth rates of 14.4% and 18.9% respectively, indicating that domestic demand remained relatively good.
Wang Qing pointed out that with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, “imports go first” after the holiday, the import growth rate returned to the basic level in March. In addition to being affected by factors such as stable domestic demand and the early appreciation of the RMB, price factors supported the import growth rate. The effect is more obvious.
Analysts at Guolian Securities believe that bulk imports are basically stable, and future expansion of opening up is expected to bring about an increase in the import of consumer goods. At present, bulk products at the import end are still flexible. Considering the impact of regulating local fiscal financing on infrastructure investment, the growth rate of bulk product imports may decline in the future.
Lian Ping pointed out that the current domestic demand has basically remained stable, and the balanced foreign trade development policy encourages the import of advanced technology equipment and daily consumer goods. It is expected that imports will maintain rapid growth in the future.
Import and export will continue to grow
Huang Songping, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs, believes that there are still many favorable conditions to promote the development of my country’s foreign trade, but there are still many uncertainties in the international environment.
Specifically: First, uncertainty in the international environment poses challenges to world economic recovery. Second, rising trade protectionism poses challenges to international trade growth. Third, the rising competition in the global manufacturing industry poses challenges to my country’s foreign trade development.
Overall, in the second quarter of this year, the pressure and challenges faced by the global economy and international trade trends continued unabated. However, as President Xi Jinping emphasized in his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2018, economic globalization is an irreversible trend of the times, and China will take a number of major measures to expand opening-up. Based on comprehensive judgment, it is expected that my country’s foreign trade import and export will continue to grow.
Analysts from Guolian Securities pointed out that in the context of opening up to the outside world, we still need to be alert to the risks of trade frictions, exchange rate fluctuations and economic slowdown. Although the overall foreign trade performance in the first quarter was acceptable, the overall performance for the whole year�Exports remain cautious, and their contribution to GDP is unlikely to reach last year’s level. At present, fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have an impact on the competitiveness of imported and exported goods, and the slowdown in the global economic recovery process will be reflected in external exports dominated by external demand. In addition, if the Sino-US trade friction continues to ferment, in addition to the substantial impact of the implementation of tariff policies, it will also have a long-term impact on globalization, so we need to remain vigilant.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, believes that there is no need to be too demanding on foreign trade export indicators, and more attention should be paid to transforming the foreign trade development model and strengthening technology, brand, quality, and service. On this basis, we must actively take the initiative with the United States in the game, and the scope of countermeasures can be expanded. For example, service trade, investment, and finance must be considered comprehensively. “We have many cards in our hands, but we must pay attention to the order when playing them.”(Title: The secret of the trade deficit in March: Textile exports fell sharply)
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