, the textile and apparel industry disrupted by the new pneumonia epidemic…
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The New Year is celebrated with the sound of firecrackers, and a pneumonia epidemic that is a hundred times more ferocious than the monster “Nian” suddenly breaks out, making this Gengzi New Year eventually go down in history.
In this battle against the epidemic, we have felt the advantages of the system of concentrating our efforts on big things, and we have felt the angels in white marching forward with heavy loads showing their heroic qualities.
People who calmed down began to think about how to revere life, revere nature, and perceive the insignificance and fragility of oneself. The ups and downs of life are impermanent. The poet Bei Dao said: Life is just a pick-up and drop-off. When you receive it, you are happy; when you send it away, you are sad. The only thing we can do is to have love in our hearts and light in our eyes in this limited life.
Thinking about the sudden variable of the pneumonia epidemic, what “butterfly effect” will it bring?
Looking at 3-5 years from now, this epidemic will not change China’s economic development trend and status. Therefore, there is no need to be overly anxious. We should look down on it strategically and pay attention to it tactically. We should pave the way when encountering mountains, build bridges when encountering water, and solve problems when encountering them.
1. Impact on the clothing industry cycle
The impact of SARS on the clothing industry cycle can be used as a reference. The impact is basically synchronized with the development of the epidemic. SARS was in March, April and May when the epidemic was severe. The impact was serious in the first half of the year, weakened in June, and gradually recovered in July. According to the analysis of the development trend of the epidemic by Dr. Zhang Wenhong, leader of the Shanghai Medical Treatment Expert Group, there are three possibilities:
Success: a good outcome is to end the battle in two to three months;
Moderate: the number of patients increases moderately. Delayed to half a year to a year;
Failure: spread.
According to the current progress of the epidemic, it will be delivered to Huoshenshan Hospital in 10 days. The country will have unified command, joint prevention and control, and give full play to the government’s advantage of concentrating its efforts on major tasks. We can optimistically predict that with a high probability, except for some areas such as Wuhan, the epidemic can be At the end of two to three months, the country will be confident and capable of winning the battle against the epidemic. If it’s the second or third situation, then just ask for blessings.
Pessimists are often correct, and optimists are often successful.
Under such circumstances, the impact on the garment industry was severe in February and March, and gradually recovered in April. It is optimistically expected to gradually normalize after May.
2. Impact on domestic clothing consumption demand
Although clothing is a necessity of life, the basic physiological needs of keeping warm and covering the body have weakened. They are more psychological needs, including aesthetic needs, showing off, scene needs, and herd needs. In the short term, clothing consumer demand is declining. After all, if you wear a mask and go out, no matter how beautiful you are, who will you show it to? Not to mention spending more time at home, a set of pajamas is versatile.
Under the epidemic, according to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory, short-term consumer preferences are changing, one ebbs and the other ebbs. Safety needs are ranked first. In the short term, consumer spending in the safety protection, medical equipment, insurance, and food industries Increase.
In the short term, it will have a greater impact on tourism, entertainment, catering, hotels, department stores, and traditional manufacturing industries, which will inevitably affect consumer income. Consumer income is expected to decline, and consumer spending on clothing will naturally decrease.
In the period after the epidemic ends, consumption will generally rebound with retaliation. According to optimistic analysis, clothing consumption will also rise in stages. Disasters will affect people’s consumption outlook to a certain extent and improve consumers’ awareness of health, aesthetics, and quality of life. Pursue. For example, after the Wenchuan earthquake, the Sichuan market quickly became the focus of all walks of life to seize the market. People who have experienced and experienced the disaster up close are more willing to consume.
3. Impact on winter inventory digestion
The procurement and sales cycle of clothing is generally ordering-loading-sales-clearing, and inventory is divided into production-side inventory and circulation-side inventory. The Spring Festival is an important time node for the digestion of winter clothing inventory.
Inventory is profit, and when it is digested, it is cash flow, which is new purchase money in the next quarter.
The increase in inventory will generate time costs and opportunity costs, reduce cash turnover rate, consume manpower and material resources, occupy warehousing, and increase management costs. The depreciation rate of inventory is astonishing, and the value of the goods is less than half of its original value after one year.
Under the epidemic, winter clothing clearance “perfectly” missed the Spring Festival period. Conservative estimates show that in distribution channels, winter inventory in 2019 will increase by more than 10% compared with 2018, and the net profit margin of the clothing industry is only about 10%.
4. Impact on spring clothing sales
According to regional differences, the time for spring clothing to be released is generally from January to March in the south and from February to April in the north. For offline channel merchants, spring clothing is basically put on the counter before the year; for e-commerce, it is before the year before. The pictures have been put on the shelves, which means that the inventory is already in our warehouse. According to Chinese customs, the payment for the goods that year is basically settled before the Spring Festival.
Offline marketing planning and promotion plans have already been made, and a lot of marketing budget has been spent; for e-commerce companies that focus on spring products, large investment in photography and art expenses have been spent, and promotion fees for main products have been invested. Tmall, for example, the proportion of advertising fees to sales is generally between 10% and 20%.
As far as offline channels are concerned, from February to March, consumers were basicallyRespond to the common demands among all links in the chain.
It is difficult to build a supply chain platform relying on traditional manufacturing companies. This requires third-party Internet companies or capital to take the lead. The supply chain platform is a clothing Internet company, not a traditional manufacturing and trading company.
In this era, all resources are concentrated toward the head. One person can go fast, and a group of people can go far!
5. Revitalize non-performing assets in the industry
The economic downturn and the epidemic will work together to accelerate the reshuffle of the industry. The best business in the short term is to revitalize the non-performing assets of the industry. The non-performing assets of the textile and garment industry’s inventory, machinery, factories, and equipment will increase accordingly. For scales with abundant cash flow, Companies integrate resources and increase market share through acquisitions and mergers. This is the law of business and has nothing to do with taking advantage of others.
6. Laying out the future
It is better to plan for the situation than to plan for the right time. The development trend of the apparel industry is: personalized demand, product stylization, channel flattening and diversification, traffic fragmentation, production intelligence, enterprise platformization, supply chain financialization, resource integration, industrial Internetization and ecology, and standardization. Product monopoly.
The most valuable things in the industry are users and data. In the era of the Internet, big data and artificial intelligence, the boundaries between channels are becoming increasingly blurred. Brands, factories, trading companies, e-commerce, retail terminals, and social e-commerce can all directly face fans and users and run their own communities.
Competition will ultimately be a multi-dimensional battle over human efficiency, square footage efficiency, product efficiency, supply chain efficiency, and capital efficiency.
A history of economic development is itself a history of elimination. The ups and downs and the rise and fall of industries are normal. What each official considers is how to ensure that he or she will not be eliminated. As long as you don’t get out, you have a chance. The demand released by those bankruptcies must be met by new supply methods.
This article is reprinted to Qishuo, author Chen Songqi
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