Overview of national textile and apparel trade
In December 2016, the total import and export value of national trade in goods was US$378.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. Among them, exports were US$209.42 billion, a decrease of 6.1%; imports were US$168.6 billion, an increase of 3.1%. The trade surplus for the month was US$40.82 billion. The total import and export value from January to December was US$3.68493 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Among them, exports were US$2.09744 billion, down 7.7%; imports were US$1.58748 billion, down 5.5%, with a cumulative trade surplus of US$509.96 billion.
In December, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$25.62 billion, down 12.1%, of which exports were US$23.43 billion, down 12.9%, and imports were US$2.19 billion, down 2.1%. The trade surplus for the month was US$21.24 billion, down 13.8%. From January to December, the textile and apparel trade volume was US$290.6 billion, down 6.1%, of which exports were US$267.25 billion, down 5.9%, and imports were US$23.36 billion, down 8.8%. The cumulative trade surplus was US$243.89 billion, down 5.6%.
1. Exports have declined for two consecutive years and have officially entered an inflection point.
Contrary to expectations, exports fell sharply again in the last month of the year, with the decline once again exceeding 10%. Textile and apparel exports continued to decline in 2016 after falling by 4.9% in 2015, and the decline expanded to 5.9%. This is the first time in the past 20 years that China’s textile and apparel exports have declined for two consecutive years, with the decline increasing year by year, indicating that China’s textile and apparel exports have officially entered an inflection point and entered an adjustment cycle.
The main reasons for the decline in exports in 2016 include: slow economic recovery in major export markets and weak external demand; unstable external environment and increasing uncertainties affecting exports; continuous increase in enterprise production costs and further weakening of traditional advantages; transfer of industries and products As a result, the share of our products in the main markets has gradually shrunk; the prices of export commodities have dropped significantly.
Imports have been declining for three consecutive years, and the decline has expanded year by year. The main reason for the decrease was reduced domestic demand and falling import prices.
2. The diversification of trade methods has achieved remarkable results, and the comprehensive foreign trade service body has expanded rapidly.
With the continuous improvement and optimization of my country’s foreign trade policy environment, the development of emerging trade methods has gradually accelerated, becoming a bright spot in exports. Among the main forms of trade in 2016, general trade exports dropped by 5.2%, better than the average, processing trade dropped by 17.2%, and border small-amount trade dropped by 18.2%. “Other” trade methods, mainly tourism trade and market procurement trade, bucked the trend and grew as high as 30.2%. Their share in exports also increased to 6%, surpassing border small-amount trade and forming an effective positive impact on overall exports. Pull.
In terms of imports, general trade and processing trade decreased by 5.5% and 15% respectively.
The main characteristics of export business entities in 2016 include the accelerated export growth of foreign trade comprehensive service platform enterprises and the further expansion of their share. The export volume of enterprises in the country’s “One Access” (including Zhejiang, Shenzhen, Shandong, and Fujian) reached US$3.68 billion, more than doubling year-on-year, accounting for 1.4% of the country’s exports. In the ranking of national export enterprises (non-group company combined statistics), the four “One Access” enterprises ranked first, third, fifth and sixth respectively.
The share of private enterprises has further increased. In 2016, the proportion of exports by private enterprises reached 68.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous year. The export volume decreased by 3.2%, better than the average; state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises declined respectively. 9.6% and 11.7%.
As a traditional labor-intensive industry, the textile and garment industry has the characteristics of many enterprises, scattered distribution, and large differences in scale. In recent years, with the acceleration of industrial structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, the concentration of export enterprises has increased. Looking at export data, the number of large and super-large entrepreneurs with an annual export volume of more than 50 million US dollars decreased by more than 70 compared with the previous year, but the proportion of export volume remained at 28%, the same as last year.
3. Exports to major markets have all declined, and the “Belt and Road” countries are now growth points.
European Union – The deterioration of the political and economic environment has caused my exports to the EU to continue to decline.
Europe has entered a troubled year in 2016. The British referendum on “Brexit”, the refugee crisis and frequent terrorist attacks have made the European economy even worse, and it is still hovering at a low level. Affected by this, China’s textile and clothing exports to the EU declined for the second consecutive year. Export volume was US$49.5 billion, down 6.8%. The export volume of the main commodities needle and woven garments fell by 0.4%, the unit price fell by a large margin, reaching 9.4%, and the export value of home textiles fell by 1.4%.
United States – Exports to the United States fell for the first time in 20 years, with both volume and price of clothing exports falling.
According to individual country statistics, the United States is China’s largest export market for textiles and clothing. From 1996 to 2015, the scale of China’s exports to the United States expanded year by year and continued to grow. The export volume expanded 14 times in 20 years, and the United States accounted for China’s export share. It has also expanded to 17%. The US market has become the “barometer” of China’s textile and clothing exports. In 2016, exports to the United States fell for the first time in 20 years, with exports amounting to US$45.02 billion, a decrease of 5.7%, which exerted a negative influence on overall exports.
Textiles and clothing decreased by 2.5% and 6.8% respectively. Among the main export commodities, the total export volume of needle and woven clothing decreased by 2.2%, the unit price decreased by 3.9%, and the export value of home textiles decreased by 1.5%.
ASEAN – Apparel exports have fallen sharply, and the differences among the countries within the alliance are obvious. </stro�With resource advantages, it has built my country's largest cotton production base and important textile production base. With the support of national policies, it has actively attracted investment and gradually expanded the garment industry. In 2016, Xinjiang's textile and clothing exports were unique, with export volume reaching US$5.24 billion, ranking 8th in the country, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, of which clothing increased by 19.5%.
6. The decline in import quantity and price led to negative growth in textile and clothing imports respectively.
Imports have declined for three consecutive years, and the decline has expanded year by year. In 2016, it decreased by 8.8%, of which textiles decreased by 12.1% and clothing increased slightly by 0.9%. From the volume and price index analysis, the textile import quantity index is 88.6, clothing is 113.1, the textile import price index is 99.2, and clothing is 89.2. It shows that the decline in textile imports is mainly caused by the decline in import volume, while clothing is mainly affected by price declines.
Among the major commodities, the import volume of yarn and fabrics dropped significantly, with cotton yarn falling rapidly by 16%; the import volume of needle and woven clothing increased by 5.7%, and the import unit price fell by 3.9%.
In recent years, with the exception of fabrics, the import prices of other major categories of commodities have fallen significantly: from 2012 to 2016, the import price of yarn fell by 18.5%, and that of knitted clothing fell by 34.9%. Among them, knitted clothing fell by 18.1%, and woven clothing fell by 18.1%. Weaving garments slowed down faster, reaching 46%.
7. Cotton imports have shrunk significantly, and the spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened.
In 2016, affected by factors such as weakening downstream demand, substitution of cotton yarn imports, and large domestic cotton inventories, cotton imports continued to decline. Only 896,000 tons were imported that year, another decrease of nearly 40% from the previous year. The United States, Australia and India are the three major sources of cotton imports in China. The unit price of cotton imports increased slightly amid fluctuations, with the annual average price being US$1,750/ton, a slight increase of 0.2%.
In 2016, affected by the economic environment and policy adjustments, domestic cotton production continued to shrink, and cotton prices fluctuated abnormally. The textile industry is basically operating smoothly, and cotton demand tends to improve. The cotton industry has entered a critical period of transformation and upgrading. The supply-side structural reform has taken important steps. The cotton reserves have been actively traded, and the destocking has achieved the expected results. The Xinjiang cotton target price reform pilot has been steadily implemented, and the basic income of Xinjiang cotton farmers has been guaranteed. In 2016, China’s cotton spot prices fluctuated upwards, with greater fluctuations. Especially from June to September, domestic cotton prices fluctuated sharply, creating a complex situation that has not been seen in many years. The annual average price of China’s cotton price index standard grade (CCIndex3128B) was 13,677 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 437 yuan/ton. At the end of the year, the China cotton price index was 15,798 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,876 yuan/ton for the whole year, an increase of 22%.
The trend of the international cotton market is roughly the same as that of the domestic market, but the fluctuation range is relatively mild, and the spot price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has expanded. After October, the price difference between domestic and foreign spot cotton has widened significantly. Take the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex3128B) and the Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM) with a 1% tariff discount in RMB as an example. The price difference between the two exceeded 2,000 yuan/ton after the National Day, and fluctuated around this price by the end of the year. According to the survey, 2,000 yuan/ton is the critical point for the price difference between domestic and foreign prices. If this price is exceeded, the quantity of foreign cotton imports will tend to increase. (The above two paragraphs are excerpted from the website of China Cotton Association)
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