The two-way fluctuation trend of RMB is obvious, making it more difficult for foreign trade companies to lock in foreign exchange
A relevant person from a foreign trade agency recently told a reporter from Securities Daily that since the beginning of this year, due to the large fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate, it has had a greater impact on the company’s cost and profit accounting. If the local currency appreciates and foreign currencies depreciate, it will directly affect the income of export companies, increase exchange gains and losses, affect the financial accounting of export companies, and compress corporate profit margins.
On November 21, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.6356, down 85 basis points from the previous trading day. According to statistics from a reporter from Securities Daily, since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 4.53%, and the flexibility of two-way exchange rate fluctuations has been further enhanced. More and more companies, especially listed companies, are beginning to realize the importance of using financial instruments to avoid exchange rate risks. sex.
Jiemei Technology recently announced that the company will handle foreign exchange hedging business, and the cumulative amount within one year will not exceed US$90 million. According to incomplete statistics, more than 110 listed companies in the A-share market have announced new related businesses and formulated systems this year. In the whole of last year, only more than 80 A-share listed companies announced new launches of this type of business.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily yesterday that when companies conduct derivatives transactions, they use RMB forwards or options to avoid and lock in exchange rate risks. Using this tool does not mean that It is guaranteed not to lose money after the period, but there is also uncertainty during this period.
Wen Bin believes that companies that make forward foreign exchange purchases at the beginning of this year may suffer some losses, because the RMB exchange rate fluctuated greatly at the beginning of this year, and the market was expected to be bearish on the RMB before April. If the exchange rate was locked at that time, then With the rapid appreciation of the RMB in September and October, companies may have certain exchange losses at this time. But whether it is purchasing or settling foreign exchange, risks should be locked in through exchange rates.
From an enterprise perspective, Wen Bin said that the RMB exchange rate will not show a unilateral trend in the future, but will fluctuate within a reasonable and balanced range. Therefore, enterprises must establish the concept and awareness of exchange rate risk prevention, especially in foreign trade. Enterprises must comply with the basic requirements of the financial system to better avoid exchange rate risks.
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of RMB exchange rate has a certain relationship with the increased fluctuation of the US dollar. Ding Yifan, a researcher at the World Development Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told a reporter from Securities Daily yesterday that in the short term, U.S. monetary policy is unstable, leading to some uncertainty in market expectations for the U.S. dollar. The reason is that the United States is in a dilemma. Once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the dollar will appreciate, but this will cause the U.S. financial bubble to burst, and the United States may be in crisis again, which will lead to another depreciation of the dollar. In the long run, the RMB exchange rate will still show a steady appreciation trend.
In September this year, the central bank issued a document to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to zero. Wen Bin believes that this reduces bank quotation costs and helps companies better use derivatives tools to hedge exchange rate risks. Against this background, on the one hand, the cultivation and awareness of corporate concepts are constantly increasing, and on the other hand, corporate demand has also increased compared with the first half of the year due to lower price costs. The two-way fluctuation trend of RMB is obvious, making it more difficult for foreign trade companies to lock in foreign exchange
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